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KMID : 1024520140230040649
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Journal of the Environmental Sciences
2014 Volume.23 No. 4 p.649 ~ p.660
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Prediction of Regional Drought considering Aspect and Elevation in Jeju Island under Future Climate Change
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Park Jong-Chul
Choi Kwang-Jun
Song Sung-Ho
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Abstract
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Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation and temperature occur with regard to aspect and elevation of Mt. Halla in Jeju Island. Therefore, there is a need to predict regional drought associate with them to mitigate of impacts of drought. In this study, regional drought is predicted based on Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and standardized precipitation index (SPI) using future (2015~2044) climate change scenario RCP (representative concentration pathways) 4.5 classified as 24 regions according to aspect and elevation. The results show that number and duration of drought will be decrease in Jeju Island. However, severity of severe drought will be increase in western and northern aspect with under 200 meters above mean sea level. These findings provide primary information for developing the proactive strategies to mitigate impacts of drought by future climate change in Jeju Island.
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KEYWORD
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Jeju, Climate change, Drought, SPI, PDSI, Duration, Severity
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